How May Mikie Sherrill as NJ Governor Impact the NJ Restaurant Industry
Her positions on taxes, labor, and regulations suggest a mixed outlook. Mikie Sherrill, a Democratic U.S. Representative from New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, was elected as the state’s 57th governor on November 4, 2025, defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli. This victory continues Democratic control of the governor’s office, succeeding two-term Gov. Phil Murphy, and positions Sherrill—a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor—to take office in January 2026. Her moderate Democratic stance, emphasizing fiscal efficiency, small business support, and worker protections, will shape policies affecting New Jersey’s restaurant sector, which employs over 400,000 people and generates billions in annual revenue. While direct mentions of the restaurant industry in her campaign were limited, her positions on taxes, labor, and regulations suggest a mixed outlook: potential relief for small operators through targeted incentives, but rising costs from enhanced labor standards. Key Positions Relevant to Restaurants
Sherrill’s platform draws from her congressional record, where she sponsored legislation on taxation (13% of bills) and labor/employment (11%). Here’s a summary of her stances on core issues impacting restaurants:
Sherrill supports targeted tax relief for middle-class families and small businesses, including audits of state health care programs to identify overpayments and redirect savings to taxpayers. Opposes broad cuts but favors incentives like expanded loans and credits for business development. She is a strong advocate for workers’ rights, including collective bargaining and union protections (e.g., supported the PRO Act federally). Likely to build on NJ’s high minimum wage ($15.13/hour in 2025, indexed to inflation) with potential increases or expanded tipped worker benefits. Sherrill emphasized government efficiency and accountability, with goals to streamline bureaucracy for small businesses and supports environmental and housing initiatives that could indirectly affect urban restaurant zoning or supply chains, but no major deregulation push. She pledges to lower food prices via investments in small food retailers and farmers; favors trade expansions (e.g., with Israel) that could benefit imported goods for restaurants…
Understanding Today’s QSR Diners
Menu price rises, and alcohol out, cannabis in. The U.S. foodservice industry continues to show resilience despite economic challenges and evolving consumer preferences. According to the latest Foodservice Market Sizing report from Circana LLC, foodservice operator spend reached $357.3 billion for the 12 months ending in June 2025, marking a 3.7 percent increase over the prior year. This growth was primarily driven by shifting consumer habits, with commercial foodservice playing a significant role in the industry’s expansion. Circana projects this figure will climb to $385 billion by June 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5 percent. The analysis reveals a 0.9 percent increase in foodservice cases over the past year, with a projected CAGR of 0.8 percent through 2028. Non-commercial foodservice segments — such as Business and Industry, Education, and Healthcare — are set to experience robust growth during this period. Meanwhile, large-chain quick-service restaurants and independent establishments are expected to drive the most incremental dollar growth. Regionally, the Northeast — the smallest market in share of operator spend — is outpacing other areas in growth due to its delayed recovery from the pandemic. From 2025 to 2028, the region is forecasted to achieve a nearly four percent CAGR in spend, driven by expansion across both commercial and non-commercial foodservice sectors. While total industry traffic has stabilized, indicating that “flat is the new normal,” specific pockets of the market are outperforming. Economic pressures, such as inflation and a slowing job market, have led to consumer uncertainty and a general decline in sentiment. This is causing consumers to be more selective with their dining-out dollars, often prioritizing essential purchases. However, this cautious spending behavior creates opportunities for operators that can deliver on specific consumer demands. Circana’s analysis reveals several key growth drivers. Increased consumer mobility, largely due to return-to-office mandates, is creating more occasions for the foodservice industry. The fast-casual and large-chain full-service restaurant segments are benefiting as they align with consumer demand for quality, variety, and a reasonable price. Furthermore, experiential dining is becoming a powerful differentiator as consumers seek more than just a meal when they choose to dine out…
Bielat Santore & Company – Restaurant Industry Alert
HOW MUCH IS YOUR RESTAURANT BUSINESS WORTH?
Since 1978, the principals of Bielat Santore & Company, Barry Bielat and Richard Santore, have sold more restaurants and similar type properties in New Jersey than any other real estate company.
Research indicates that a significant portion of business owners lack awareness regarding the true value of their enterprises.
- Specifically, approximately 65% of business owners are unaware of their company’s valuation, which can hinder strategic planning and growth opportunities.
- Furthermore, a substantial 75% of business owners’ personal net worth is directly linked to their business, emphasizing the importance of understanding and managing business valuation effectively.
- Despite this, a concerning 85% of business owners do not have an exit strategy in place, potentially jeopardizing their financial security and future planning.
Developing a comprehensive exit strategy is crucial for ensuring a smooth transition, maximizing business value, and safeguarding personal assets. These statistics highlight the need for increased education and strategic planning among business owners to enhance their understanding of business valuation and exit planning, ultimately contributing to more sustainable and financially secure business operations.
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AI Location Intelligence is Becoming the Secret Sauce for Restaurant Expansion
In 2025, the most successful restaurant chains are using AI to scale faster, smarter. When it comes to restaurant expansion, one decision outweighs the rest: location. Pick the right site, and you build a high-volume, brand-enhancing powerhouse. Pick the wrong one, and you’re stuck with a slow-draining investment, eating into margins, morale, and momentum. Traditionally, this decision relied on broker relationships, anecdotal foot traffic estimates, and generic census data. But the restaurant industry is undergoing a seismic shift. Artificial Intelligence, particularly geospatial AI, is revolutionizing how brands evaluate, select, and validate new locations. The most forward-thinking QSR and fast-casual chains aren’t just tracking competition or plotting maps anymore. They’re training algorithms on footfall, demographics, income patterns, competitor density, drive-thru trends, and even social sentiment to make smarter, faster, and more confident decisions. Welcome to the age of AI-powered location intelligence. Location intelligence is the process of layering geospatial data like maps, traffic, and demographics with business insights to drive strategic decisions. When AI enters the picture, it amplifies this process with automation, pattern recognition, and predictive modeling. Instead of sorting through spreadsheets or hiring multiple analysts to research trade areas, expansion teams can now:
- Select an area or radius around a custom area
- Query natural-language prompts like “Best neighborhoods in Austin for family dining with high lunchtime footfall and low QSR density”
- Automatically rank and benchmark locations using dozens of data layers
- Model future traffic trends based on seasonality, nearby developments, or events
In short: AI location intelligence turns raw geospatial data into actionable, dynamic decisions. The stakes in restaurant site selection have never been higher. Labor costs are rising, real estate is tightening, and brand competition is heating up. Franchise leaders, expansion heads, and real estate directors can’t afford to rely solely on instincts or outdated location models anymore. AI solves several pain points…
National Restaurant Association Breaks Down ‘No Tax On…’ Regulations
The new rules and how they affect restaurant employees. No Tax on Tips and Overtime Premium Pay proposals have become a reality over the last 18 months. However, while most employees know the plans will reduce their federal income taxes, the government has issued certain rules they should be aware of. During a recent presentation, Sean Kennedy and Aaron Frazier, National Restaurant Association executive vice president and vice president of Public Policy, respectively, shared key points on the regulations, which are part of the tax reconciliation bill: “No Tax on Tips” provides a $25K income-tax deduction for certain tipped workers, reducing their taxable income on their federal taxes. This is a temporary 4-year policy. “No Tax on Overtime Premium Pay” provides a similar deduction for anyone who earns overtime pay over 40 hours per week, maxing out at $12.5K for single filers and $25K for joint filers. The deduction is only based on the half-time premium you earn when making time and a half over 40 hours. Eligible occupations for the tip deduction include several restaurant and hospitality roles beyond servers and bartenders. Employers will track and report tips and overtime pay on W-2 forms, and employees are responsible for claiming the deductions on their individual federal tax returns. These policies, Kennedy said, are intended to help restaurant and hospitality employers attract and retain workers by providing a significant tax benefit on a portion of their compensation. “When we ask restaurant owners what their biggest challenge is, the answer is pretty much the same—recruiting and retaining the best workers,” he said. “One of the biggest advantages the industry has is the tip credit and tipped wages. People can do incredibly well and create fantastic livelihoods for themselves. President Trump proposed no taxes on tips during the presidential campaign in 2024, and it quickly gained bipartisan support. We engaged early on to make sure things like 45B would not be affected by it, and that it would be manageable and workable for employers.” Now that it’s become law, Kennedy said his team has been getting questions about how it works and what it means, so the goal is to provide guidance on how best to explain it to employees at the shift level, and during recruitment. “These new income tax deductions are temporary, and already in effect for tax year 2025,” Frazier added. “If you earned a tip working on Jan. 1, it qualifies for the no Tax on Tips, but it is set to sunset at the end of 2028, making it a rare 4-year tax deduction that will expire”…
Mass Deportation Threatens to Collapse Restaurant Industry
New UC Berkeley and One Fair Wage Report finds. On National Immigrants Day, the UC Berkeley Food Labor Research Center and One Fair Wage released a new report warning that Donald Trump’s deportation campaign is not only tearing families apart but also gutting one of America’s most important industries: restaurants. The report, An Industry of Immigrants: Restaurant Industry Impacts of Mass Deportation, details the economic and human consequences of the Trump administration’s deportation policies, finding that the loss of immigrant labor is driving restaurant closures, staff shortages, rising prices, and a shrinking economy nationwide. According to the report, immigrants make up 22 percent of all restaurant workers in the U.S., including 46 percent of chefs and 18 percent of waitstaff. In many cities, the proportions are far higher — with more than half of all restaurant workers in Washington, D.C., and New York City identifying as foreign-born. The UC Berkeley–One Fair Wage analysis found that since Trump’s return to office, 1.7 million foreign-born workers have fled or been forced out of the country between March and July 2025 — a 5 percent decline in the foreign-born labor force. That exodus has caused the overall U.S. workforce to contract by nearly 800,000 workers, marking the first major labor force decline in years. Applied to the restaurant industry, that loss translates into approximately 137,000 fewer immigrant restaurant workers in just four months, with projections showing the industry could lose as many as 310,000 by the end of the year. “Mass deportations are a form of economic sabotage,” said Saru Jayaraman, President of One Fair Wage and Director of the UC Berkeley Food Labor Research Center. “Every deportation is a pink slip for an American restaurant. The industry depends on immigrants — from dishwashers to chefs to owners — and without them, it collapses.” City-level data show the localized effects of this national crisis. In New York City, roughly 4,800 foreign-born restaurant workers have fled the country since March. The Mayor’s Office of Immigrant Affairs reports that 60 percent of the city’s restaurant and food service workforce is foreign-born, and one in five is undocumented — meaning tens of thousands live under threat of deportation. In Chicago, where nearly half of all restaurant workers are foreign-born, an estimated 2,257 workers have left since March. And in Washington, D.C., about 800 foreign-born restaurant workers have left the country, accounting for nearly all of the city’s restaurant workforce decline during that same period…
How to Serve Drinks That Steal the Spotlight at Your Restaurant
Beverage leaders are using spectacle, storytelling, and training to drive premiumization. Creating drinks that stand out isn’t just about flavor. It’s about delivering an experience that guests remember, talk about, and hopefully even come back for. The question for operators is how to craft beverages that not only taste good, but also capture attention the second they hit the table. Scott Taylor, CEO of R&R Brands, thinks about it in terms of theater. His hospitality and entertainment group spans about 50 locations across multiple states, and he likens the strategy to the timeless restaurant move of sending out a sizzling plate of fajitas. The sound and aroma turn heads, and suddenly other guests start thinking about ordering fajitas for themselves. “It’s the same thing with a drink, whether it’s a smoked old fashioned or whatever it may be,” Taylor says. “What can you do to create some buzz when people see it go by?” At Party Fowl, an R&R concept specializing in hot chicken and big, boozy drinks, that buzz comes in the form of oversized, eye-catching, and playful drinks that Taylor says are designed to “create a moment.” The lineup includes technicolor slushies topped with mini airplane bottles, a Bloody Mary garnished with an entire fried chicken, and brunch cocktails served with IV bags that drip directly into the glass. The Urban Cowgirl Cocktail—made with vodka, prickly pear, lemon, and prosecco—arrives in a disco ball cowgirl hat cup. (“And yes,” Taylor notes, “you get to keep the cup.”) Inside the restaurant these drinks create buzz, and online they extend it, with guests posting plenty of photos of the eye-catching presentations. Tapster has a similar goal of creating memorable, shareable experiences. The self-pour tasting room features 40–60 taps across categories including beer, cider, wine, cocktails, hard seltzer, and more. Guests tap their card on the screen above each selection and are charged by the ounce as they pour. “The beauty is that we really promote sampling and trying different things,” says founder and CEO Roman Maliszewski. “I always say it’s the Froyo of drinks.” The model puts control in guests’ hands and reduces staffing needs, but it doesn’t come at the expense of social interaction. “You see somebody with a drink that looks interesting, or they’re pouring from a tap you want, and it’s so easy to engage with them,” Maliszewski says…
The New Language of Dessert
How the final course is evolving. Desserts are no longer just a sweet ending; they’ve become statements of identity, a way for restaurants to showcase culture, craft, and care. From elevated Southern comforts to Middle Eastern pastries and playful Asian classics, the final course is evolving into one of the most dynamic parts of the dining experience. In September, Uchi Miami debuted its first lunch service, offering seasonal sorbets alongside its elevated Japanese cuisine. During Miami’s long, hot summers, these scoops have become a refreshing escape for customers. Ariana Quant, executive pastry chef at Hai Hospitality, the parent company of Uchi, gets excited when customers skip the sushi and come in just for dessert. In addition to mochi ice cream and sorbet, Uchi’s Fried Milk Dessert has become a signature. It features fried milk, vanilla, chocolate, and corn flakes, creating a sense of nostalgia and comfort. Uchi doesn’t shy away from dessert innovations on its dinner menu either. “We have whipped jasmine cream, cilantro granita, and honey tuile treats that are unexpected and exciting. I love incorporating notes of savory and sweet into the menu to surprise our guests and open their eyes to what dessert can be,” Quant says. Also located in Miami is Amal, a Lebanese-inspired restaurant with a menu that seeks to put a new perspective on long-held traditions. The menu embraces Lebanese spices and values, like communal dining, alongside Miami’s bright and coastal flavors. “In Lebanese culture, we have mezze, which is the intention of a dish to be shared. Our desserts are indulgent, so although one person can finish it, we encourage everyone to take a bite,” Antoin Garcia, executive pastry chef at Amal, says. Desserts include the Chocolate Halva Mousse, topped with sesame brittle and tahini chantilly; the Kanafeh, with cheese, semolina dough, and rose water; Mastika Ice Cream, with notes of cotton candy and pistachio; and Baklava, with pistachio, walnut, cinnamon, and vanilla ice cream. For Garcia, the dessert that best reflects Amal’s culinary philosophy is the Date Cake, made of rich dates, butterscotch sauce, vanilla ice cream, and honey tuile. It’s a best-seller, ensnaring guests with its modern design but traditional flavors. Amal also offers dessert wines to complement its sweet treats and balance guests’ palates, like the Touriga Nacional Blend Port, with notes of deep, dry fruits, cherries, and plums, accompanied by nutty, spicy, and citric flavors—a perfect encapsulation of Lebanese tastes…
Did You Know?
How Restaurant Owners Can Get the Most from Their Food Distributors. If your food distributor is just dropping off boxes and invoices, you’re leaving money on the table. Too many owners treat their distributor like a vending machine. Instead, you should treat them like a strategic partner. Why? Because when you do, your margins improve, your consistency gets stronger, and your peace of mind follows. Let’s talk about one of the most misunderstood and underutilized tools in your restaurant: your food distributor. Start by scheduling regular check-ins. Whether it’s with your salesperson or a regional director, these face-to-face conversations matter. In a world of online ordering and automated systems, we lose the human touch — and that’s where the real value lies…
Employee Tip
The Role of Training in Retention and Culture. The restaurant industry has always been a people-first business. From the front of house to the back of house, it runs on human effort — on talent, teamwork, and trust. But in a labor market defined by high turnover and rising wages, restaurants and foodservice operators are being forced to rethink how they build and retain teams. One powerful answer? Ongoing training — not just as a means of compliance or onboarding, but as a continuous strategy to attract talent, strengthen culture, and keep good people growing within the business…
